Crude oil prices rose as escalating Middle East tensions and attacks on commercial shipping threatened regional supplies, while additional Russian diesel exports offered a potential counterweight to supply concerns.
Global oil prices climbed on Monday, October 12, 2026, as escalating conflict in the Middle East and fresh attacks on commercial shipping raised concerns about crude oil supplies. Brent crude futures rose 0.73% to $105.48 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.64% to $92.44 per barrel in early trading.
The rise followed attacks claimed by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi group on Saudi Arabia. The group claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh’s international airport that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Saudi authorities also reported injuries in another attack on the airport on Sunday.
Shipping security remained a major concern for energy markets. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar anchorage in Oman, while another vessel was damaged by an unidentified projectile while travelling through the Strait of Hormuz. Further attacks could disrupt oil exports and increase shipping and insurance costs.
The developments threaten to slow the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports recorded in September. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy shipments, making any disruption to tanker traffic a significant concern for oil-importing countries and energy markets.
Russian diesel supplies offer some relief
US President Donald Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to US and international markets, with additional supplies expected later. Following the announcement, European gasoil futures fell sharply as traders assessed the prospect of greater fuel availability.
However, analysts questioned how quickly Russia could deliver the additional volumes because its refining capacity had been reduced. Moscow has partially lifted restrictions on diesel exports, potentially allowing more fuel to enter international markets.
Trump also announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was awaiting details of the proposed arrangement, while Russia had not publicly commented on the announcement at the time of the report.
Goldman Sachs raises oil forecast
Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel from $85, citing a geopolitical risk premium of slightly more than $20 per barrel. The bank said continued adjustments to Middle Eastern supply could eventually ease prices, but further escalation remained a significant upside risk.
Separately, energy companies Shell, Chevron and BP were working to redeploy personnel and restore production at their Gulf of Mexico platforms after Hurricane Isaias made landfall. Any prolonged disruption to US offshore output could add another source of uncertainty to global oil supplies.
Oil markets therefore face competing pressures: potential increases in Russian diesel supply and adjustments in regional exports could ease prices, while attacks on shipping, geopolitical tensions and weather-related production disruptions may keep crude prices elevated.
