India is expected to continue importing Russian crude at close to current levels after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs under a new law targeting major buyers of Russian oil, according to analysts.
New Delhi, October 18 — India is expected to continue buying Russian crude oil at close to current levels after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions, restrictions and duties under a new law aimed at major importers of Russian oil and gas.
Trump issued an executive order late on Friday waiving measures under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, just before the 30-day deadline for enforcement was due to expire.
The law, signed on September 18, authorised tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas, along with sanctions targeting Russia’s shadow tanker fleet.
The waiver is not specific to India and could also benefit other large buyers, including China. However, the US administration retains the power to reconsider the waiver later.
India remains the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude, averaging about 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026, ahead of China at around 1.2 million barrels per day, according to ship-tracking data cited in the report.
India imported around 1.82 million barrels per day of Russian crude in September, compared with approximately 1.49 million barrels per day imported by China.
Kpler expects India’s October imports to remain at about 1.8-1.9 million barrels per day.
Although still high, these volumes are below the peaks recorded earlier this year. Indian imports reached 2.6 million barrels per day in June and 2.57 million barrels per day in July.
Analysts said the US waiver removes an immediate obstacle for Indian refiners and is likely to encourage continued purchases of Russian crude.
Russian oil became increasingly attractive to Indian refiners after Western sanctions following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led many traditional buyers to reduce purchases.
Russia subsequently redirected cargoes to Asian markets at deep discounts to benchmark Brent crude.
Before the conflict, Russian oil accounted for around 2% or less of India’s crude imports, but its share later rose to as much as 40-50% at times.
The discounted crude improved refining economics for Indian companies and also helped control imported energy costs.
In September 2026, the discount on Russia’s Urals crude relative to Brent averaged around $23 per barrel, according to analysts cited in the report.
Indian refiners have also processed Russian crude into products such as diesel for both domestic consumption and exports.
The latest waiver therefore reduces the immediate risk of disruption to one of India’s most important crude supply sources, although analysts noted that future changes in US policy could still affect import decisions.
