Oil prices fell more than 1% on Thursday as investors weighed rising supply from Russia and the Middle East against continuing geopolitical risks and shipping disruptions in the region.
October 15 — Oil prices moved lower on Thursday as the market balanced concerns over Middle East tensions with signs of improving crude supply from major producers. Brent crude fell to around $104.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate slipped to about $94.11 per barrel.
The decline reversed part of the previous session’s gains, when WTI had climbed to a three-week high following attacks linked to the Houthis on Saudi Aramco infrastructure and increased Iranian military activity around the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping risks in the region remain elevated. Reuters reported that two vessels sank within 24 hours after projectile strikes, adding to concerns about the safety of major oil and trade routes through the Middle East.
Despite these geopolitical risks, additional supply from Russia and Middle Eastern producers has helped prevent a sharper rise in crude prices.
Russia’s crude production increased to around 8.43 million barrels per day in September, although output remained lower than a year earlier. Middle Eastern oil exports have also recovered to roughly 75% of pre-war levels.
Investors are also watching possible changes in US sanctions policy. Potential easing of restrictions on some so-called shadow-fleet vessels could help reduce freight costs and allow additional oil supplies to reach global markets.
In the United States, industry data showed crude inventories fell by a sharp 11.1 million barrels, but the market reaction remained limited as traders focused more heavily on geopolitical developments and the broader supply outlook.
Official US inventory figures from the Energy Information Administration are still awaited and could provide the next major signal for oil prices.
For now, crude markets remain caught between two opposing forces: the risk of further supply disruptions from the Middle East and improving production and exports from other major suppliers.
