WTO sees stable start to 2025 but warns of trade uncertainty

The World Trade Organization (WTO) cautioned that rising trade policy uncertainty and potential new tariffs could impact global trade in the medium term. However, it expects trade to remain steady in early 2025 and has not revised its forecast of 3% growth in global merchandise trade volume for the year, as projected last October.

According to the WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer, global goods trade remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2024 and is expected to continue growing in the initial months of 2025. The organization noted that “rising trade policy uncertainty could have temporarily boosted trade (in last quarter of 2024) as businesses and consumers front load imports ahead of potential measures, possibly reducing demand later in the year.”

Since taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump has initiated a global trade war, with tariffs gradually being implemented. Countries affected by these duties have responded with retaliatory measures.

In the third quarter of 2024—the latest period for which WTO data is available—world merchandise trade volume grew 3.3% year-on-year, continuing its recovery from the 2023 trade downturn. The WTO had forecast a 3% growth in trade volume for 2025, with developments in the first three quarters aligning with its prediction of 2.7% growth for all of 2024.

While global trade growth has remained steady, significant regional differences have emerged. The WTO noted that “although the global average has remained steady, there have been some significant regional disparities in goods trade growth. In particular, European exports and imports have been much weaker than anticipated while Asia’s exports and North America’s imports have exceeded expectations.”