Kharif output expected to grow by 5.4%

According to the First Advance Estimate of Production of Food Grains data, the kharif foodgrain production is estimated to reach 164.70 million tonnes. Rice production, the biggest kharif crop, is likely to hit a record 119.93 MT in the 2024-25 kharif season.

Image credit: Freepik

The Ministry of Agriculture’s first advance estimate indicates that India’s food grain production is expected to hit a record 164.7 million tonnes (MT) in the 2024-25 kharif season, marking a 5.4% increase from the previous year. This growth is expected to positively impact the rural economy, boosting farmers’ incomes. The above-normal monsoon and high reservoir levels suggest a robust rabi season as well. 

Despite a 1.4% dip in agri-gross value added (GVA) growth in 2023-24, economists expect a 3-3.2% growth in the current fiscal year, with the crop sector contributing around 55% and livestock 30% to agri-GVA.

India’s rice production is set to reach a record 119.93 MT, up 5.5% from last year, while maize output is expected to hit an all-time high of 24.54 MT, a 10% increase. 

Jowar production is forecast to rise to 2.19 MT, but bajra output may decline to 9.37 MT. 

Pulses production is expected to remain stable at 6.95 MT, and oilseeds production is predicted to increase to 25.74 MT, up from 24.16 MT. 

Despite this growth, India still imports around 58% of its edible oil and 15% of its pulses.

However, production of cash crops like sugarcane, cotton, and jute is expected to decline. Sugarcane output is projected to fall to 439.93 MT from 453.15 MT, cotton is expected to decrease to 29.92 million bales, and jute production may drop to 8.45 million bales. 

The agriculture ministry, for the first time, has used Digital Crop Survey (DCS) data under the Digital Agriculture Mission, which is expected to improve the accuracy of production estimates in the coming years. (DCS-based Crop Area Estimation has been conducted in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha, with all the districts in these states covered under DCS in Kharif 2024.)

This year, the southwest monsoon was 8% above average, resulting in an increase in kharif crop sowing. Regionally, central India experienced the highest surplus, with rainfall 19% above average, followed by southern peninsular India at 14%. However, northern and northeastern parts of the country saw a deficit, with rainfall falling 14% below average.