IMD predicts hotter-than-usual summer

India is likely to experience hotter-than-usual temperatures with an increase in heatwave days, particularly in the central, eastern, and northwestern plains. Rainfall is expected to be normal, and neutral El Niño conditions are forecasted to ensure a regular monsoon season.

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The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted hotter-than-usual temperatures across most parts of India during the summer months (April-June). The temperature rise is expected to be particularly severe in the central, eastern, and north-western plains, with these regions likely to experience 2-4 more heatwave days than the usual 4-7 days.

The states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are predicted to experience above-normal heatwave days.

While some regions in western and eastern India may experience normal temperatures, minimum temperatures across most areas are expected to be above normal. The higher temperatures are anticipated to increase electricity demand and affect water supply, particularly due to the increased need for irrigation and drinking water. However, the ongoing harvest of rabi crops, including wheat, is not expected to be significantly impacted.

In April, temperatures across India are expected to be above average, with the exception of some areas in the extreme southern and northwestern regions, which may experience normal temperatures. The country is also expected to receive normal rainfall, in the range of 88%-112% of the long period average.

In terms of broader climate patterns, the IMD forecasts a transition to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in April 2025, which is likely to persist throughout the year. This is expected to support a normal monsoon season from June to September. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are anticipated for the upcoming season, further boosting monsoon prospects.

IMD data shows that all-India rainfall until March 31 was 20.1 mm, marking the 27th lowest since 1901 and the 10th lowest since 2001. In Southern Peninsular India, 20.7 mm of rainfall was recorded, ranking as the 24th highest since 1901 and the 8th highest since 2001. March saw normal to above-normal rainfall across South Peninsular India and Eastern India, in line with the IMD’s earlier forecasts.