India’s export portfolio has experienced subtle shifts over the years, with notable changes in product shares and destination markets. Mineral oils and fuels have increased from 9% to 21% of exports, while gems and jewelry have declined from 17% to 9% in 2023 compared to the early 2000s. In the last decade, the U.S. remains India’s largest export destination, with exports increasing from US$ 42 billion to US$ 75 billion. New markets such as Togo and the Netherlands have shown rapid growth, especially in fuel and technology products, while established markets like China and UAE have seen minor declines in share.
Emerging sectors like electrical machinery, pharmaceuticals, and photovoltaic cells reflect India’s growing manufacturing capabilities in high-tech and green energy. As India adapts to shifting global demands, its export landscape continues to diversify, reinforcing India’s strategic role in global trade.
India’s export basket has witnessed some shifts over the past decade. Broad HS chapters remain consistent. However, their shares in overall exports have fluctuated significantly. Mineral oils and fuels, for instance, have surged from 9% of exports during 2001–05 to 21% in recent years. Conversely, gems and jewelry, which accounted for 17% of exports in the early 2000s, have dropped to a 9% share in the 2021–23 period. This article explores the evolving structure of India’s export portfolio, comparing data from 2013 with 2023, and highlights major advancements in India’s export landscape over the last decade.
India’s top 10 export destinations consistently account for around 50% of its total exports, with some notable shifts in rankings and shares. The US has remained India’s largest export market, showcasing consistent linear growth. Exports to the U.S. increased from US$ 42 billion to US$ 75 billion over the past decade, and its share of India’s total exports rose from 12% to 18%. Leading exports to the US include gems and jewelry (up by 66%); electrical machinery (expanding six-fold); pharmaceutical products (more than doubling); and fuels, which increased by more than five times.
In the case of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), exports saw a dip between 2013 and 2018. However, this trend reversed with the signing of the India-UAE CEPA, restoring export levels to their 2013 values. Despite this recovery, the UAE’s share of India’s total exports fell from 10% to 8%. Meanwhile, China’s importance as an export market has declined, dropping from the 3rd to the 4th rank, and its share decreased by 1%.
One of the most significant changes has been the Netherlands’ rise from the 8th largest export destination in 2013 to the 3rd largest export destination in 2023. Imports from India grew from US$ 9 billion to US$ 23 billion, largely driven by strong growth in fuel, electrical machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals exports
Other notable changes include share declines for Singapore, Hong Kong, and Saudi Arabia, while Bangladesh emerged as a major gainer. Moving from the 14th to the 7th largest export market by 2023, Bangladesh’s imports from India nearly doubled from US$ 5.9 billion to US$ 11.2 billion, fueled by higher fuel exports and rising cotton imports to meet its robust apparel manufacturing needs. The recent situation of political instability in Bangladesh is affecting its apparel industry which might pose a threat to Indian exports of cotton. But this scenario will overall result in a benefit to the Indian apparel industry as countries are showing confidence in India’s manufacturing capabilities.
Source: ITC Trade Map
Our analysis of India’s fastest growing markets focuses on destinations with above-average export volumes and ranks them according to 5-Year CAGR. The countries showing the highest export growth rates are Togo, Mozambique, Netherlands, Tanzania, and Australia.
Source: ITC Trade Map (US$ billion)
India’s exports to Togo reached US$ 3.8 billion in 2023, with fuel exports making up US$ 3.2 billion, largely due to India’s enhanced refining capabilities. Exports to Togo have surged from US$ 183 million in 2013, marking a remarkable 17-fold increase. Additionally, rice exports to Togo have expanded 15 times over the past decade.
High CAGR rates in exports to Mozambique, Tanzania, and Australia are primarily driven by growth in fuel and pharmaceutical exports. Australia also shows significant demand for electrical machinery, contributing to India’s export growth to this market.
India’s top 10 exports account for 65% of its total exports, up from 62% in 2013. While the composition of this basket has largely remained consistent, cotton has fallen from the 8th to the 17th position, marking a substantial drop in India’s export profile. Mineral oil/fuels and gems & jewelry have consistently been India’s largest export categories, with mineral oil/fuels making up 21% of exports—unchanged over the past decade. However, gems and jewelry have seen a reduction in share from 13% in 2013 to 8% in 2023.
Cotton exports have dropped by nearly half. China, once the top destination for Indian cotton (US$ 4.8 billion in 2013), now imports just US$ 833 million, having shifted its primary sources to Vietnam, US, and Brazil. Over the decade, global cotton imports have also declined, impacting India’s export value.
Mineral oil/fuels and gems & jewelry continue to be India’s top exports, growing at a steady rate. The primary destinations for mineral oil/fuel exports have shifted from Singapore, Saudi Arabia, and UAE in 2013 to Netherlands, UAE, and the United States in 2023. For gems and jewelry, key markets like UAE and Hong Kong have significantly reduced imports, with UAE’s imports dropping by half.
Electrical machinery has gained substantial importance, rising from the 9th to the 3rd largest export category, with exports tripling over the decade. The smartphone segment has been pivotal, going from negligible levels before 2022 to US$ 7 billion in 2022, doubling to US$ 14 billion in 2023 due to India’s expanding manufacturing capabilities and the China+1 strategy. The growing green energy movement has also bolstered exports of photovoltaic cells in modules or panels, now the second-largest item under India’s electrical machinery exports, supported by World Bank funding of US$ 165 million for India’s residential renewable energy.
Among other top exports, nuclear reactors and machinery have gained share due to rising exports of turbojets, turbopropellers, and other gas turbines, while pharmaceuticals have also grown. In contrast, vehicles other than tramways have experienced a decrease in export share. Overall, electrical machinery has increased its contribution to India’s exports from 3% in 2013 to 7% in 2023.
Fastest growing Products
The analysis focuses on India’s top export products with above-average export volumes, highlighting categories with the most substantial growth in recent years.
Electrical machinery is India’s fastest-growing export category showcasing a 5-Year CAGR of 22%, driven primarily by the introduction of smartphones and photovoltaic cell manufacturing for solar panels in India’s export baskets. The government’s push towards local smartphone production under initiatives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, combined with the global “China+1” strategy, has positioned India as a major supplier. Exports of smartphones have skyrocketed, reaching US$ 14 billion in 2023, doubling from US$ 7 billion in 2022.
The growing emphasis on green energy has also boosted exports of photovoltaic cells, used in solar panels, as India ramps up renewable energy projects, with World Bank support facilitating further growth in the residential sector. Overall, electrical machinery has grown from 3% to 7% of India’s total exports over the last decade, showcasing India’s emerging capabilities in high-tech manufacturing.
India’s second fastest-growing export is mineral oil/fuel with a 5-Year CAGR of 13%, a category frequently highlighted in discussions on India’s export strength. With expanded refining capacity and favorable global demand, India has become a significant supplier of refined oil, with top destinations including the Netherlands, UAE, and the United States. The category remains India’s largest export by value, accounting for 21% of total exports.
The third fastest-growing category includes optical fibres, optical fibre bundles and cables (excluding individually sheathed fibres), along with surgical equipment and other optical and photographic instruments. Demand for these advanced technology products has grown in key markets such as the United States, where exports have tripled over the past decade, and in Germany and France. This growth reflects India’s expanding expertise in precision manufacturing and high-quality medical and scientific equipment. As demand for optical technologies, medical instruments, and communication infrastructure continues to rise globally, these exports are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, further diversifying India’s export portfolio.
Among the fastest-growing export products, miscellaneous chemical products demonstrate an 8% 5-Year CAGR. A significant contributor to this category is insecticides, rodenticides, fungicides, herbicides, anti-sprouting products, and plant-growth regulators, with exports valued at US$ 4.3 billion in 2023, doubling since 2013. Key markets for these products include the United States and Brazil, where India’s agricultural chemicals support large-scale farming needs.
Pharmaceutical products are also gaining export share, showing a similar 8% 5-Year CAGR. The US remains India’s largest market for pharmaceuticals, making India its 4th largest source of pharmaceutical products. This growth reflects India’s robust pharmaceutical manufacturing sector, renowned for producing affordable, high-quality generics and specialty drugs. The increasing demand from global markets, coupled with India’s regulatory compliance and cost advantages, continues to position India as a critical player in the global pharmaceutical supply chain.
India’s export landscape has evolved over the past decade, marked by a shift in both product composition and market dynamics. While traditional exports such as mineral oils and gems & jewelry continue to dominate, emerging sectors like electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals have gained prominence, reflecting India’s growing manufacturing capabilities and diversification. The rise of smartphones and photovoltaic cells exemplifies India’s increasing engagement in high-tech and green energy sectors.
Market-wise, the U.S. has solidified its position as India’s largest export destination, with strong growth across key product categories. Meanwhile, countries like Togo, Mozambique, and the Netherlands have experienced remarkable export growth, driven by strategic shifts and favorable trade dynamics. Conversely, some traditional markets such as China and the UAE have seen a relative decline in share, but India’s overall export growth remains robust due to the diversification of its destinations and products.
The steady rise of countries like Bangladesh and the continued strength of the U.S. and UAE showcase India’s potential to tap into new and emerging markets while maintaining strong trade relationships with established partners. The continued expansion of India’s export basket and its ability to adapt to changing global demands underscore the country’s growing role in global trade, positioning it as a key player in diverse sectors ranging from energy to technology and pharmaceuticals.
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