India’s pharma exports to reach US$ 350 bn by 2047, driven by innovation

India’s pharma exports are expected to double to US$ 65 billion by 2030 and reach US$ 350 billion in value terms by 2047, moving to the top five position globally by diversifying its product basket, reveals a new report by Bain & Company. The report highlights the need for innovation, quality focus, and collaboration between the government and private sector to achieve this growth.

India’s pharmaceutical exports are projected to double from approximately US$ 27 billion in 2023 to US$ 65 billion by 2030 and reach US$ 350 billion by 2047, positioning the country among the top five globally, according to a report. This also implies that the pharmaceutical sector’s share in India’s merchandise exports will increase from about 6% currently to approximately 7% by 2047. While India is the world’s largest supplier of generic drugs, it currently ranks 11th in export value.

Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal said, “India has long been the pharmacy of the world. Now we want to change the narrative to ‘India as the healthcare custodian of the world’. The government is fully committed to achieving this goal by fostering innovation, boosting R&D, and ensuring seamless regulatory processes.” 

“By strengthening collaboration between academia, industry, and government, we will continue to build a globally competitive sector that drives growth and contributes to healthcare worldwide,” he added.

The report, ‘Healing the World: Roadmap for Making India a Global Pharma Exports Hub’, was developed by Bain & Company in collaboration with the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance (IPA), the Indian Drug Manufacturers’ Association (IDMA), and Pharmexcil. It highlights India’s potential to secure a top-five position in global pharma exports by 2047 through innovation and diversification, particularly by expanding into specialty generics, biosimilars, and novel pharmaceutical products.

To achieve this, the report emphasizes the importance of quality assurance, regulatory advancements, enhanced access to global markets, talent development, and entrepreneurial innovation. The report identifies key industry segments, including APIs, biosimilars, and generic formulations, as major drivers of future expansion. Additionally, it highlights the crucial role of collaboration between the government and private sector in enhancing India’s global competitiveness.

India’s pharmaceutical sector

The pharmaceutical industry is currently the fifth-largest contributor to India’s manufacturing Gross Value Added (GVA), generating a substantial trade surplus and supporting countless livelihoods. The industry accounts for approximately 4% of India’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, maintains a US$ 19 billion trade surplus, and directly or indirectly supports 2.7 million livelihoods.

As the world’s leading supplier of generic medicines, India meets approximately 20% of global demand for generics. 

By 2030, India’s pharma sector is projected to grow 2.2 to 2.4 times, reaching US$ 120 billion to US$ 130 billion and increasing its global share from the current 3% to 3.5% to nearly 5%. (The global pharmaceutical market is currently valued at approximately US$ 1.6 trillion, with India’s market standing at around US$ 55 billion.)

India boasts a robust pharmaceutical network with over 10,000 manufacturing facilities, more than 3,000 pharmaceutical companies, and 650 US-FDA-compliant plants—the highest number outside the United States. The country is the world’s leading supplier of generic medicines. By supplying one in five generic drugs sold globally, India has earned the title of the “pharmacy of the world.”

The country has risen from seventh place in 2019, to become the third-largest pharmaceutical exporter by volume. Its pharmaceutical exports reach approximately 200 countries and territories, meeting nearly 50% of Africa’s generic drug demand and 40% of the United States’ generics requirement. This global success is driven by India’s ability to produce high-quality, cost-effective medicines.

India’s Pharma exports

Uniquely, India’s pharmaceutical industry has an export market as large as its domestic market, with both poised for continued growth. The Pharma exports play a crucial role in country’s economic expansion, contributing 6% of India’s total merchandise exports by value. In 2023, India’s pharmaceutical exports reached US$ 27 billion, up from US$ 19 billion in 2018, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8%. The majority of these exports (over 70%) consist of formulations, while bulk drugs and drug intermediates account for approximately 20%. Other key export segments include vaccines, biosimilars, and innovative products. 

Despite India’s strong pharmaceutical presence, its exports remain ‘underrepresented’ in major global markets. The market penetration of generic formulation exports, in terms of value, is below 5% in NAFTA, Europe, Northeast Asia (NEA), and Latin America & the Caribbean (LAC), which together account for over 80% of the global pharmaceutical market.

While India has already established a strong focus on NAFTA, increasing its presence in Europe and NEA could drive further growth. Notably, Europe’s pharmaceutical market is only 70% genericized, compared to 90% in the U.S., presenting a significant opportunity for expansion. Additionally, Indian biosimilar exports to NAFTA and Europe remain low, comprising just 1.5% to 2% and 1% to 1.5% of total export value, respectively, highlighting substantial room for growth in these high-value segments.

There is immense potential to expand pharmaceutical exports across multiple segments, as well. Value growth in formulations is expected to be driven by greater penetration of specialty generics in key markets. The China+1 strategy is anticipated to boost India’s API exports and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) services.

Vaccine exports are poised for significant growth, with an initial focus on middle-income countries (MICs) and a long-term expansion into high-income countries (HICs). Additionally, the shift from primarily pediatric vaccines to a broader portfolio that includes adult vaccines will further drive demand.

Investments in biosimilars are expected to yield returns over the next decade, following a trajectory similar to small-molecule generics but with a time lag of nearly ten years. While exports of New Chemical Entities (NCEs) and New Biological Entities (NBEs) remain in their early stages, strengthening R&D capabilities and focusing on high-growth, cutting-edge therapies—such as cell and gene treatments—will be crucial for sustaining long-term growth in these innovative segments.

Sriram Shrinivasan, Partner, Bain & Company, noted, “The transition from volume-based to value-led growth is essential for Indian pharma to secure its rightful place in the global market. Innovation, including the shift towards specialty generics, biosimilars, and novel products, will be the key to India’s pharmaceutical future.”  

He added, “With the right focus on quality, regulation, access to global markets, talent, and entrepreneurial innovation, India can rise to be among the top-five pharma exporters globally by 2047.”

Conclusion 

India must take a strategic approach to global demand by identifying high-potential export markets. The QuRATE framework—Quality, Regulation, Access to global markets, Talent, and Entrepreneurial innovation—will be instrumental in unlocking these opportunities. To achieve the ambitious target of nearly US$ 350 billion in pharmaceutical exports by 2047, key priorities include expanding specialty generics exports, strengthening API and CDMO services through the China+1 strategy, increasing vaccine exports to high-income countries, and leveraging opportunities in biosimilars and innovative products. Collaboration between the private sector and the government will be essential. Shifting from a volume-based to a value-driven model will be crucial for India to secure its place among the world’s top pharmaceutical exporters.