India targets US$ 26.56 bn agri exports amid shrinking surplus

India’s agricultural exports grew 13% year-on-year, reaching US$ 22.67 billion by February FY25, amid a 21% surge in rice exports after the removal of restrictions 12% increase in Meat, dairy, and poultry exports, while fresh produce and processed foods also saw steady growth. However, oilmeal exports declined 12.39% due to falling prices and policy restrictions. Despite outperforming total merchandise exports, India’s agricultural trade surplus shrank to US$ 8.2 billion, reflecting rising imports and fluctuating global prices.

 

India’s agricultural exports are growing steadily, with the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) setting a target of US$ 26.56 billion for FY25. Between April and February of this financial year, exports of agricultural and processed food products rose 13% year-on-year, reaching $22.67 billion. This growth mainly comes from a 21% surge in rice exports.

Rice Exports Surge After Eased Restrictions

India’s rice exports, including both basmati and non-basmati varieties, jumped 21% year-on-year, exceeding US$ 11 billion, up from US$ 9.32 billion last year. The government’s decision in September 2024 to remove export restrictions—initially imposed to stabilize domestic supply—played a key role in this rise. By lifting all barriers, including the minimum export price, India unlocked record shipments.

Exporters expect rice exports to grow another 15% in FY25, potentially crossing US$ 12 billion, driven by strong global demand. India, the leading rice exporter for over a decade, continues to dominate markets in Africa and Southeast Asia. The country has set an ambitious target of 5 million tonnes for basmati rice exports, far surpassing Pakistan, which ships less than 1 million tonnes annually. Although securing payments for shipments to Iran remains a challenge, demand for Indian basmati rice remains high.

India’s exports of meat, dairy, and poultry climbed 12% year-on-year, reaching US$ 4.61 billion between April and February in FY25, up from US$ 4.11 billion in the same period last year. Buyers increasingly prefer Indian bovine meat for its superior quality and high nutritional value, strengthening India’s position in global markets.

Exports of fresh fruits and vegetables grew 5% in the first 11 months of FY25, hitting US$ 3.39 billion. Shipments of cereal-based processed foods rose 9% to US$ 2.82 billion. As global demand for Indian farm products rises, exporters are exploring new markets and improving supply chains.

Challenges in Oilmeal Exports

While key agricultural exports performed well, some exports like oilmeal shipments declined. Between April and February 2024-25, exports fell 12.39% year-on-year, dropping from 44.90 lakh tonnes to 39.33 lakh tonnes. February 2025 saw a steep decline, with total oilmeal exports shrinking from 5.15 lakh tonnes to 3.30 lakh tonnes compared to February 2024.

Rapeseed meal exports declined 17.53% to 16.82 lakh tonnes, while castor seed meal shipments fell 21.44% to 2.74 lakh tonnes. The export price of rapeseed meal dropped sharply from US$ 270 per tonne in February to US$ 190 per tonne by mid-March 2025, compared to US$ 285 per tonne last year. Additionally, the government’s ban on de-oiled rice bran exports since August 2023 severely impacted domestic producers, especially in Eastern India, causing local prices to fall from ₹13,500 (US$ 156) per quintal to ₹8,500 (US$ 98) per quintal.

Soybean meal exports remained stable at 19.40 lakh tonnes during April-February 2024-25, driven by demand from Germany and France. However, shipments dropped 23% in the October-February period, falling from 13.47 lakh tonnes to 10.31 lakh tonnes. Excess supply and weak global demand lowered soy meal prices from $380 per tonne last month to US$ 360 per tonne.

Narrowing Agricultural Trade Surplus

India’s agricultural exports continue to outpace total merchandise exports, rising 6.5% year-on-year from US$ 35.2 billion (April-December 2023) to US$ 37.5 billion (April-December 2024). However, agricultural imports surged 18.7%, increasing from US$ 24.6 billion to US$ 29.3 billion during the same period.

As a result, India’s agricultural trade surplus shrank from US$ 10.6 billion in April-December 2023 to US$ 8.2 billion in April-December 2024. The surplus peaked at US$ 27.7 billion in 2013-14 but dropped to US$ 8.1 billion in 2016-17 before recovering to US$ 20.2 billion in 2020-21. However, it has been shrinking again, falling to US$ 16 billion in 2023-24, with further declines expected this year.

Fluctuating global commodity prices continue to impact India’s agricultural trade. Between 2013-14 and 2019-20, India’s farm exports dipped due to lower global prices, making Indian products less competitive. The post-pandemic recovery and geopolitical factors temporarily boosted exports, but as prices stabilize, India’s agricultural trade surplus is shrinking again.