China, US and India will lead world trade

Despite global trade uncertainties and rising tariff concerns, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 paints an optimistic picture—global trade is set to grow, and India is at the forefront of this expansion. Ranked third in absolute trade growth behind China and the U.S., India is rapidly emerging as a key player in global commerce. With its trade volume outpacing global growth rates and a projected US$ 1.8 trillion share of global trade by 2030, India’s rising influence is impossible to ignore. Let’s dive into the key trends shaping the future of international trade.

Key highlights

• If all proposed U.S. tariff increases are implemented, this would result in much slower trade expansion, but such tariffs are unlikely to reverse the growth of global trade.
• India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecast to be among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth from 2024 to 2029, with India ranking third overall in absolute trade growth, behind China and the U.S.
• South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia are forecast to see the fastest trade volume growth from 2024 to 2029, but high-income economies are expected to generate 58% of the world’s total trade growth, with slow-growing Europe generating 30%.
• Despite decades of globalization, only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced worldwide is consumed outside its country of production, leaving significant room for further trade expansion.

---

As geopolitical tensions dominate the news headlines, among all the gloom and doom news coming out on the international trade front, DHL report which was recently released comes as a whiff of fresh air raising our optimism that global trade is not in doldrums. The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 underscores that global trade growth is projected to continue despite unprecedented uncertainty regarding potential new tariffs and India has a big role to play in the growth of global trade.

The report answers the questions – How will trade patterns evolve in the coming years? What impact will tariff conflicts have? And which countries and regions will lead in trade growth? Opportunities to grow trade remain substantial in both advanced and emerging economies. Countries continue negotiating trade agreements, and companies continue looking for the best options to source and sell around the world.

Forecasts also predict a broadening of trade growth across a wider set of countries. Over the next five years, China and the U.S. are still predicted to generate the most absolute trade growth, but China’s share of global trade growth is forecast to decline from 18% (2019–2024) to 12% (2024–2029), while the U.S. share dips from 14% to 10%. India is forecast to achieve the third largest amount of absolute trade growth (6% of the global total) over the next five years. This positions India as a major player in the international trade landscape, reflecting its rapid economic expansion and increasing integration into global markets.

 By 2030, the total global  merchandise trade (import+export) is projected to reach US$ 30 trillion. At 6%, India’s share would be US$ 1.8 trillion.

Trade Growth Rate: India’s trade volume has been growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2019 to 2024, significantly outpacing the global trade growth rate of 2.0% during the same timeframe. This trend is anticipated to continue, with India maintaining its position as a leading economy in trade growth.

Rankings in Trade Dimensions: The report indicates that India will retain its third place in terms of absolute trade growth and is projected to improve its ranking on the speed dimension from 32nd to 17th. This reflects not only the scale of India’s trade but also its increasing efficiency and speed in trading activities.

India achieved its third-place rank on the scale dimension because its trade growth was much faster than other large economies. India was only the 13th largest participant in international trade in 2024, but its trade volume grew at a 5.2% compound annual rate since 2019. This growth is dependent upon India raising its  compound annual trade volume growth rate rises from 5.2% to 7.2%.

While China is often viewed as a more trade-oriented economy than India, India’s goods trade-to-GDP ratio was almost as high as China’s in 2023, and India’s trade intensity exceeded China’s when considering trade in both goods and services.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Top 10 rankings

Emerging Market Dynamics: Alongside India, other emerging markets such as Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are also expected to rank highly for both speed and scale of trade growth. This highlights a broader trend where emerging economies are set to drive significant portions of global trade expansion.

The countries with the fastest trade growth during this period were Guyana, Armenia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tajikistan, Jordan, and Rwanda. High annual growth rates across these countries resulted in very large increases in their trade volumes. Guyana nearly quadrupled its trade volume over this period, and Armenia’s trade volume more than doubled. These are the countries where India should focus on expanding trade relations.

Resilience Amidst Challenges: Despite potential challenges such as geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties, the report underscores the resilience of global trade, indicating that India will continue to thrive as a critical hub connecting East and West.

Overall, India’s outlook in the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 emphasizes its growing influence in global trade dynamics, driven by robust economic performance and strategic international engagement.

---

Suhayl Abidi is Research Advisor, GOG-AMA Centre of International Trade & Consultant, Centre for VUCA Studies, Amity University. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Business and Trade.